Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 32.526462 35.034526 37.752190 40.935638 44.588465 48.680932 53.659000
2025-05-11 28.649370 31.970253 35.794589 40.593130 46.556166 53.871172 63.775631
2025-05-18 26.126746 29.796088 34.186219 39.948338 47.512568 57.425978 72.023153
2025-05-25 24.208756 28.050997 32.780021 39.204085 48.011474 60.202567 79.522038
2025-06-01 22.722804 26.667431 31.635416 38.579816 48.460958 62.818501 87.188842
2025-06-08 21.347336 25.299433 30.366117 37.609830 48.230559 64.299334 93.258320
2025-06-15 20.921953 25.112077 30.610481 38.711460 51.086882 70.914470 109.995165
2025-06-22 20.132224 24.379878 30.046203 38.577299 52.010738 74.497463 122.154182
2025-06-29 19.277754 23.505432 29.217467 37.965011 52.077863 76.570514 131.837834
2025-07-06 18.378882 22.522143 28.172949 36.937125 51.338790 77.040199 138.036080
2025-07-13 18.185296 22.495278 28.478430 37.985446 54.176012 84.731947 165.422968
2025-07-20 17.904802 22.327172 28.560782 38.678276 56.470164 91.845179 195.846912
2025-07-27 17.510271 21.992634 28.398137 38.997956 58.203936 98.362877 230.418619
2025-08-03 16.974274 21.431614 27.865909 38.667823 58.688291 102.229715 259.524463
2025-08-10 16.414379 20.810841 27.208250 38.072870 58.583578 104.677177 285.671083
2025-08-17 15.871874 20.193743 26.525462 37.385134 58.215604 106.403642 310.974567
2025-08-24 15.391320 19.649731 25.930248 36.807769 58.007565 108.521837 341.836334
2025-08-31 14.866571 19.022477 25.178679 35.909735 57.046967 108.430347 360.450677
2025-09-07 14.802855 19.077556 25.499341 36.929561 60.244558 120.909834 493.722909
2025-09-14 14.495128 18.753502 25.199675 36.805440 60.945257 126.282806 592.523752
2025-09-21 14.112045 18.302788 24.677381 36.238701 60.591885 128.250226 666.345130
2025-09-28 13.668703 17.748151 23.967533 35.286262 59.271335 126.745733 693.760581
2025-10-05 13.636184 17.818850 24.276434 36.257623 62.523091 142.022906 1113.279472